An overview of units currently involved in fighting in the Robotyne direction.
Unit locations are not exact, nor do they represent the location of the entire unit.
I think it's fair to say he general consensus has been the UA advance during this offensive have been slow. But most analysts also agree there is a big unknown factor and that is the attrition ratio of the two forces fighting.
Over the last few months, RuAF have gradually allocated reserves for the defense of the Robotyne axis. A few weeks ago (a month?), they moved 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division from Kherson oblast towards Robotyne .
During the last week or so, they also decided to move the 76th Guards Air Assault Division which was kept in reserve in Luhansk Oblast. This unit is considered to be the best they have.
Before the offensive, I believed RuAF had plenty of reserves in the area, and I still believe that was true. I think RuAF moving two VDV divisions to defend against the UA advance is a sign of high attrition among the regular RU forces.
It seems RuAF have decided to keep counter attacking instead of falling back to their prepared defenses, I think this along with the arrival of DPICM is part of the reason for the high attrition of RuAF.
It's also worth pointing out RuAF have committed 2 VDV divisions and one brigade in the Bakhmut area to stop the AFU advances.
Since VDV and Naval Infantry is what RuAF rely on for offensive maneuvers, they are most likely degrading their over all future offensive potential using them defensively.
It remains to be seen how RuAF will utilize the 76th GAAD in the area. This fight is far from done, but I predict we will keep seeing a slow grind well in to the fall/winter.
A lot of people ask why RuAF keep counter attacking. I think this is for "political" reasons. This way the local commanders can tell their bosses Ukraine have not managed to take Robotyne yet.
That would make it look like a huge failure for Ukraine on paper. Like they have accomplished nothing during 2.5 moths. This is a great argument for telegram and twitter experts.
In reality, territory gained and lost counted as km/km2 is pretty much irrelevant. This is just as true now as it was during the winter when the russians attacked Bakhmut. What really matters is the attrition ratio.
What we most likely are seeing is RU Southern Military District being highly attired to the point where they need reinforcements from the north. That being said, what we still dont know is how much remaining offensive potential Ukrainian forces have.
An overview of units currently involved in fighting in the Robotyne direction.
Unit locations are not exact, nor do they represent the location of the entire unit.I think it's fair to say he general consensus has been the UA advance during this offensive have been slow. But most analysts also agree there is a big unknown factor and that is the attrition ratio of the two forces fighting.Over the last few months, RuAF have gradually allocated reserves for the defense of the Robotyne axis. A few weeks ago (a month?), they moved 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division from Kherson oblast towards Robotyne .During the last week or so, they also decided to move the 76th Guards Air Assault Division which was kept in reserve in Luhansk Oblast. This unit is considered to be the best they have.Before the offensive, I believed RuAF had plenty of reserves in the area, and I still believe that was true. I think RuAF moving two VDV divisions to defend against the UA advance is a sign of high attrition among the regular RU forces.It seems RuAF have decided to keep counter attacking instead of falling back to their prepared defenses, I think this along with the arrival of DPICM is part of the reason for the high attrition of RuAF.It's also worth pointing out RuAF have committed 2 VDV divisions and one brigade in the Bakhmut area to stop the AFU advances.Since VDV and Naval Infantry is what RuAF rely on for offensive maneuvers, they are most likely degrading their over all future offensive potential using them defensively.It remains to be seen how RuAF will utilize the 76th GAAD in the area. This fight is far from done, but I predict we will keep seeing a slow grind well in to the fall/winter.A lot of people ask why RuAF keep counter attacking. I think this is for "political" reasons. This way the local commanders can tell their bosses Ukraine have not managed to take Robotyne yet.That would make it look like a huge failure for Ukraine on paper. Like they have accomplished nothing during 2.5 moths. This is a great argument for telegram and twitter experts.In reality, territory gained and lost counted as km/km2 is pretty much irrelevant. This is just as true now as it was during the winter when the russians attacked Bakhmut. What really matters is the attrition ratio.What we most likely are seeing is RU Southern Military District being highly attired to the point where they need reinforcements from the north. That being said, what we still dont know is how much remaining offensive potential Ukrainian forces have.
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An overview of units currently involved in fighting in the Robotyne direction.
Unit locations are not exact, nor do they represent the location of the entire unit. ... I think it's fair to say he general consensus has been the UA advance during this offensive have been slow. But most analysts also agree there is a big unknown factor and that is the attrition ratio of the two forces fighting. ... Over the last few months, RuAF have gradually allocated reserves for the defense of the Robotyne axis. A few weeks ago (a month?), they moved 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division from Kherson oblast towards Robotyne . ... During the last week or so, they also decided to move the 76th Guards Air Assault Division which was kept in reserve in Luhansk Oblast. This unit is considered to be the best they have. ... Before the offensive, I believed RuAF had plenty of reserves in the area, and I still believe that was true. I think RuAF moving two VDV divisions to defend against the UA advance is a sign of high attrition among the regular RU forces. ... It seems RuAF have decided to keep counter attacking instead of falling back to their prepared defenses, I think this along with the arrival of DPICM is part of the reason for the high attrition of RuAF. ... It's also worth pointing out RuAF have committed 2 VDV divisions and one brigade in the Bakhmut area to stop the AFU advances. ... Since VDV and Naval Infantry is what RuAF rely on for offensive maneuvers, they are most likely degrading their over all future offensive potential using them defensively. ... It remains to be seen how RuAF will utilize the 76th GAAD in the area. This fight is far from done, but I predict we will keep seeing a slow grind well in to the fall/winter. ... A lot of people ask why RuAF keep counter attacking. I think this is for "political" reasons. This way the local commanders can tell their bosses Ukraine have not managed to take Robotyne yet. ... That would make it look like a huge failure for Ukraine on paper. Like they have accomplished nothing during 2.5 moths. This is a great argument for telegram and twitter experts. ... In reality, territory gained and lost counted as km/km2 is pretty much irrelevant. This is just as true now as it was during the winter when the russians attacked Bakhmut. What really matters is the attrition ratio. ... What we most likely are seeing is RU Southern Military District being highly attired to the point where they need reinforcements from the north. That being said, what we still dont know is how much remaining offensive potential Ukrainian forces have.
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