Wed: Russia withdraws the core of its Black Sea Fleet from Crimea in response to successful Ukrainian attacks, WSJ Thursday: Russia’ll set up a naval base in a break away Georgian Abkhazia controlled by Russia What does it mean? 1. Russia can and will be contained 1/Ukraine achieves a strategic success by making Crimean an unwelcome place for the Russian fleet. So, Russia pushes its warships East to Russian bases in Novorosiysk 2/But now this report about the naval bases in Abkhazia suggests that Russia considers its move East permanent and wants to set up more infrastructure in the East of the Black Sea 3/Overall this is good news because it will mean that Russia capability to harass freedom of naval movement in the West and South of the Black Sea will diminish 4/But there are also negative consequences. The world has just seen what can happen with Russian supported break away regions. This week Nagorna-Karabakh, the disputed territory between Azerbajan and Armenia has ceased to exist as a breakaway entity 5/After about 40 years it came back under Azerbaijan control. The break away govt was propped by Moscow and Moscow lost to Azerbajan and Turkey There are more places like that in the region 6/There are two break away regions close by in Georgia. They have been invaded in 2008 and controlled by Russia since then. It is the same sham structure that Russia has set up elsewhere including in the East of Ukraine 7/Now Russia wants to post a naval base in one of these regions. This means that it will be more difficult to kick Russia out from there. But it also might mean that Russia worries it can lose this region or that it prepares to divert forces from Ukraine to Georgia 8/The scenario where fighting in Ukraine subsides but Russia activates other frozen conflicts where it may try it luck is not out of the question. Things are on the move with Russia and something in the regions to the South of Russia can change soon, even if it appears calm now X

Wed: Russia withdraws the core of its Black Sea Fleet from Crimea in response to successful Ukrainian attacks, WSJ Thursday: Russia’ll set up a naval base in a break away Georgian Abkhazia controlled by Russia What does it mean? 1. Russia can and will be contained 1/ ... Ukraine achieves a strategic success by making Crimean an unwelcome place for the Russian fleet. So, Russia pushes its warships East to Russian bases in Novorosiysk 2/ ... But now this report about the naval bases in Abkhazia suggests that Russia considers its move East permanent and wants to set up more infrastructure in the East of the Black Sea 3/ ... Overall this is good news because it will mean that Russia capability to harass freedom of naval movement in the West and South of the Black Sea will diminish 4/ ... But there are also negative consequences. The world has just seen what can happen with Russian supported break away regions. This week Nagorna-Karabakh, the disputed territory between Azerbajan and Armenia has ceased to exist as a breakaway entity 5/ ... After about 40 years it came back under Azerbaijan control. The break away govt was propped by Moscow and Moscow lost to Azerbajan and Turkey There are more places like that in the region 6/ ... There are two break away regions close by in Georgia. They have been invaded in 2008 and controlled by Russia since then. It is the same sham structure that Russia has set up elsewhere including in the East of Ukraine 7/ ... Now Russia wants to post a naval base in one of these regions. This means that it will be more difficult to kick Russia out from there. But it also might mean that Russia worries it can lose this region or that it prepares to divert forces from Ukraine to Georgia 8/ ... The scenario where fighting in Ukraine subsides but Russia activates other frozen conflicts where it may try it luck is not out of the question. Things are on the move with Russia and something in the regions to the South of Russia can change soon, even if it appears calm now X