These appear to be long range heavy MLRS of 240 mm to 400 mm diameter rather than "ballistic missiles." 1/

Heavy MLRS like the Chinese PLA, 350 km range, PCL191 erases the distinction between short range ballistic missiles & guided MLRS. It is unclear exactly what the real ranges range of Iranian Heavy MLRS are given Chinese technology transfers. 2/

The "missile" impacts have the classic artillery rocket impact ellipse with strikes being on the line of flight axis having more dispersal (long/short) that left or right of it. 3/

The most likely candidates for these Hezbollah/IRGC projectiles from least to most likely are the 240mm Fajr-3 (left), the 333 mm Fajr-5 (right top) or the 300 mm Fath 360 (right bottom) 4/

The density of this videos rocket volley's, by my count about ~10 per salvo and 8-to-10 salvos, means we are seeing a 10 launcher unit with 8-to-10 heavy artillery rockets per launcher. 5/

Given IDF air superiority, drone coverage and counter battery radar coverage, expect to see IDF strike videos on these launchers real soon now. 6/6 End

@threadreaderapp unroll please

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