Curious Shubham - NISM Certified
Curious Shubham - NISM Certified
@Curious_Shubh
Jul 14 4 months ago 11 tweets Read on X
AI Summary

If India and Pakistan go to war after the Pahalgam attack, markets could fall 10-20%, with volatility and panic selling. Sectors like banking, auto, aviation, and tourism may suffer, while defense, energy, and gold could benefit. Markets may drop sharply initially, then recover if India shows strength. War could last weeks or months, but India is stronger now. Smart investors watch defense and infra stocks.

𝗜𝗳 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝗴𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝘄𝗮𝗿 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗣𝗮𝗸𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗮𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗴𝗮𝗺 𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸…

Will the stock market crash ?
Which sectors will bleed ?
Which stocks will benefit ?
Can India take back PoK ?
How many days war will last ?

A detailed breakdown 🧵

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1/ What if India & Pakistan go to war after the Pahalgam terrorist attack?

A major geopolitical escalation could have wide-ranging effects on India's economy, markets, and national strategy. Let’s break it down:

2/ Immediate Response:

If India responds militarily to the Pahalgam terror attack, expect:

Volatile markets

INR depreciation

Flight of FII capital

Rise in crude oil prices (depending on global sentiment)

Gold and USD becoming safe-haven assets

3/ Stock Market Impact:

👉🏻Markets hate uncertainty. War = uncertainty.

👉🏻Nifty/Sensex could fall 10–20% short term

👉🏻VIX (volatility index) will spike

👉🏻Panic selling in broader market

But this could also create opportunities.

4/ Sectors that will be NEGATIVELY affected:

👉🏻Banking & Finance – credit risk rises

👉🏻Automobiles – consumption slows

👉🏻Aviation – fuel costs, low travel

👉🏻Tourism & Hospitality – especially in North India

𝟱/ 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗕𝗘𝗡𝗘𝗙𝗜𝗧:

👉🏻Defence & PSU stocks – HAL, BEL, BDL, Bharat Forge

👉🏻Logistics & Infra – L&T, Adani Ports

👉🏻Energy – ONGC, Oil India (oil demand up)

👉🏻Gold-related ETFs & stocks – Safe haven demand rises

𝟲/ 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲:

👉🏻0–5 days: Sharp fall

👉🏻5–30 days: Sector rotation, defensive stocks lead

👉🏻30–60 days: If India shows strong control & global support, recovery starts

History shows market recovers fast post limited war

𝟳/ 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝘄𝗶𝗻 & 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗣𝗼𝗞?:

Yes, militarily India is far stronger now.

Challenges: Terrain, global pressure, risk of escalation

Time to win POK? Could range from weeks to months, if full-scale ops launched

Diplomacy + Strategy = Key

𝟴/ 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:

A military response is likely, but full-scale war is still uncertain

Stock markets react first with fear, then with logic

Smart investors will watch defence & infra

Long-term: War boosts nationalism, defence spending, and economic resilience

9/ What's your take on how markets should prepare for geopolitical risk?

Drop your thoughts below.

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