Lauri Myllyvirta
Lauri Myllyvirta
@laurimyllyvirta
Dec 11 • 1 month ago • 12 tweets • Read on X

We knew China's rush to install solar and wind was going to be wild but WOW😮. The solar panels & wind turbines installed in May alone, in a single month, will generarate as much electricity as:
-Poland
-Sweden
-Norway
-the UAE
-North Carolina&Maryland or
-Washington&Wyoming

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In the first five months of the year, China added 198 GW of solar and 46 GW of wind. Those turbines and panels will generate as much electricity as:
-Indonesia
-Turkey
-Any U.S. state except for Texas or
-California, Arizona and New Mexico put together
-and much more than the UK

Chinese companies installed 93 GW of solar and 27 GW of wind in a single month in May. That's about 230 million solar panels and 5300 wind turbines. That's almost 100 solar panels every second, and a wind turbine every 10 minutes.

These wild installation numbers are made possible by rapid growth of the sector in the past few years and by strong profitability, compounded by a rush to install before a June deadline when the tariffs paid to new renewable power plants change.

This massive wave of capacity additions will inevitably be followed by a lull, but it still shows what is possible with the dramatically reduced costs and increased supply capacity of the solar industry in particular.

The rush to install will make the numbers for the rest of the year hard to read, as the project pipeline will have been drained to an extent. So it will take some months before we see where the additions of new capacity settle after the change to tariffs.

For companies in the sector, the lull in installations that follows this rush of course means hard times.

The jump in capacity means that clean power generation growth will remain strong this year and early next year even if capacity additions slow down. This gives the policymakers and the companies some time to calibrate policies and develop business models under the new system.

Due to the major economic significance of the clean energy industry and its importance in meeting GDP targets, the central and provincial govts will want to keep the industry humming, so I expect them to act if the new tariff policy results in a sharp slowdown.

China's wind and solar industries themselves have expected the effect of the new tariff policy to be manageable, with a significant slowdown in the second half of this year but next year's capacity additions climbing above this year's levels.

And yes, China is still adding coal and gas (thermal) power, complicating its energy transition. But as long as clean power generation keeps growing faster than demand—as it has for over a year—fossil power generation and power sector CO2 emissions will continue to fall.

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Source of capacity data:

I calculated the expected annual power generation from the newly added capacity based on reported average capacity factors (full-load hours) in 2024:

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