Ryan Greenblatt
Ryan Greenblatt
@RyanGreenblatt
Sep 2 2 days ago 3 tweets Read on X

Transparency about the opaque serial depth is great, but this statement is consistent with Astra having a configurable "dial" that is currently set to a low depth but could be trivially increased.

We need more info to see how concerning these architectural changes are, including:

- Are there readily available ways to deploy this AI with much higher serial depth (that would be commensurately more performant)? This should include things like tiny amounts of fine-tuning to productively increase the number of iterations.
- Is the AI a large or above-trend jump in opaque reasoning capabilities? (Capabilities within a single forward pass or ability to subvert a CoT monitor.)

(If there are in fact any relevant changes—perhaps the reporting is inaccurate?)

Additionally, I worry that this architectural change will naturally lead to much more depth in the future if this direction is pursued further. Specifically, I wonder:

- Does the AI have an architectural change that makes it much more natural to massively scale up the depth in a future training run with a similar architecture? As in, does the architecture introduce some new depth/recurrent-iterations parameter that is very natural/performant to massively scale up relative to scaling up other things like width?

The details of the answers to these questions matter. E.g., if there are only a few (recurrent) iterations and you could scale up the number of iterations, but this wouldn't be particularly performant/natural with this architecture, then this development would be a lot less concerning!

@merettm
I want to prevent a race into unmonitorability kicked off by confused reporting. The depth of the computation graph for our present frontier models, including Astra, is within a factor of two of GPT-4.

OpenAI has worked to preserve and utilize chain-of-thought monitoring since

Separately, it's useful to get some understanding of what high-serial-depth techniques are under active development (at both OpenAI and other AI companies), even if these methods aren't applicable to Astra. (While this is important, this is a basically separate and higher stakes question for companies to answer.)

"productively increase the number of iterations" should say "productively increase the number of recurrent iterations"

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