So people want to hear why I think Mike Johnson and Republican moderates flipped on aid to Ukraine in the past 96 hours? OK, here goes: Mike Johnson's shift in attitude has to do with religion and political capital calculations, in that order, I think. Start with background -
Four big things tell you about who Mike Johnson is as a political operator, in my opinion. One, his Black "son" and the oddly inconsistent story that he tells about when and how they met. I don't think that's the son going to the Naval Academy. https://t.co/RO0Ef1BHFV
Two, his Christian nationalism. This is well-documented. He's not the nicey-nice "oh well maybe we can compromise or something" kind. He's the "destroy American institutions of church-state separation" kind. https://t.co/P0vLPWGqYE
Three, the way that he became Speaker; Johnson uses a survival strategy someone gave me once for military group runs (long story): Don't be in the front or in the back, because they get called on to do more, or picked on. Be in the middle. That's him. https://t.co/HNZn1PDoVg
Four, the American Ethane thing. American Ethane had, according to FEC MUR 7491, "no domestically generated income" and made loans from entities owned by foreign nationals. That should, in principle, be very, very illegal, but the FEC deadlocked 3-3 on it.
The thing is, I don't even think Johnson cared very much, because American Ethane gave to everyone they thought could help them lift the ban on LNG exports. Compared to Russia-friendly Republicans we've seen in 2024 this really isn't that much. Like, this ain't exactly Manafort.
So when Iran attacked Israel last weekend, Johnson was just getting out of a meeting with Trump at Mar-A-Lago. And as of Friday, Apr 12, Trump was saying that Johnson was doing a "good job" and that MTG's motion to vacate threat was "unfortunate". https://t.co/uV8UlD1lwL
On Saturday, Apr 13, Johnson started getting deluged with calls from lawmakers urging him to pass aid to Israel. https://t.co/qN88Ihh74X.
At some point on either Sunday or Monday - I suspect Sunday, given Monday's announcements - Johnson "met with colleagues late into the night... (and) prayed..." The next day, his mind had changed. https://t.co/YEZX4lt3lK
By Monday, Apr 15, Johnson was declaring on Fox that it was America's "biblical admonition" to help Israel. And, remember, this guy is a militant Christian nationalist, so when he says that kind of thing... you should take that at face value. https://t.co/5H57J2AxaF
By Thursday, Johnson was willing to say that he'd seen intelligence that said it was vital to aid Ukraine. Which begs the question, literally what intelligence did he see that people haven't been browbeating him with since the Jan 17 White House meeting https://t.co/3mqXMvvBVM
A very good point here to make is, even if Johnson is really acting pro-Ukraine here on the aid package, he's still pro-Trump. And there's a conflict with being pro-Trump and pro-Ukraine, as Susan B. Gasser at The New Yorker points out, I think correctly. https://t.co/lCSAb1PTR6
As it stands, with Gosar, Massie and Green now all ready to motion to vacate Johnson as soon as that Ukraine aid bill gets a vote, we can infer two easy things: 1) that shift in attitude was real, otherwise, they wouldn't be this angry https://t.co/FdlMXpipGT
2) since Taylor-Green is just putting up dumb amendments and not motioning-to-vacate yet, they're waiting to do it, and they might realize how stupid it is altogether https://t.co/ig9qJzk11v
The structure of a motion-to-vacate threat, especially in the current Congress, is... stupid. You can only make good on a threat like that once, so it's like holding a grenade and saying you're President of the room. Yup sure buddy, room POTUS, that's you🙄. Just not for long.
As the Times explained yesterday, the defense supplemental has been split up under Johnson's plan, and it actually looks like it has "sweeteners" for Republicans that are not also "poison pills" for Senate Democrats. Notice what's not here: immigration. https://t.co/rhxO7bRQqS
Notice, also, how Israel aid and Ukraine aid are split up, which is actually, believe it or not, something I would have wanted too, because aid to Israel is such a divisive topic for the Democratic Party's progressive wing. Now Biggs likes it... https://t.co/XensHJ42OA
...and Ilhan Omar, as of Thursday Apr 18, is tweeting pictures with the Ukrainian flag Which is, again, given the opposition of the progressive wing to unconditioned aid to Israel bundled into the original supplemental, somewhat extraordinary. https://t.co/QkeciIZ8f6
I've never bought a simplistic explanation of "oh Johnson is paid for by Russia and everything he does is explained by that" It's a talking point, that's fine, but in real life, political operators sophisticated enough to get "stealth" elected House Speaker don't act like that.
So I think simplistic explanations of Johnson's shift, like "oh he had a Come To Foreign Policy Jesus" moment doesn't really work either Like, when he talks about his "son is in the USNA now"... notice he doesn't mean his Black son. Yeah.
Rather, I think we're seeing a political calculation Johnson's making, against both the classified HPSCI Tuesday briefing that he received and reportedly, like, took hella seriously... https://t.co/aazn9o2xvJ
...and where the Republican Party stands as a whole. I've spoken to two pretty decently connected, formerly Republican-aligned... I guess "operatives" works. Both of them where shockingly frank about how bad it looks for the GOP right now. Because of Trump.
Maybe it's a mixture of mostly political calculation, a little bit of seeing which way the wind's blowing and putting some sunlight between him and Trump, with a slapdash veneer of evangelical epiphany on top, but I do think something has changed. Not hugely, yet, but... yeah.
