1/ Few realise the true extent to which Gulf states 🇸🇦🇰🇼🇦🇪🇶🇦have engaged in financial bailouts over the past 50+ years. A recent paper charting the rise of Arab Gulf states "as powerful geopolitical actors, deploying vast financial resources for strategic gain" reveals a lot.
2/ 'Gulf Bailout Diplomacy' details the practice of states "using sovereign bailouts as a tool for building influence ... and shaping their political and security environment...".
3/ The geography in question shown below.
4/ The biggest sources of Gulf bailout capital in the prior 59 years are: Saudi Arabia, $207 Billion (56% of all disbursements) Kuwait, $60B UAE, $54B Qatar, $26B
5/ The top recipients of Gulf bailout aid over the past 59 years, have been: Egypt, 30% ($108 Billion) Iraq, 27% ($99B) Pakistan, 9% ($33B) Syria, 6.5% ($24B) Jordan, 5.4% ($20B)
6/ In the 59 years between 1963 and 2022, the following countries received bailouts from the Gulf Egypt, during 23 of those years, or 39% of the time Jordan, 23 yrs, 39% Pakistan, 17 yrs, 29% Syrian, 14 yrs, 24% Yemen, 14 yrs, 24%
7/ The tentacles of the petrodollar are far-reaching, across time and space. Using the data in this study, my expectation that the cost of keeping failed states afloat will rise, can be evaluated empirically. https://t.co/1h51dBUvXB
8/ Observations: - Adjusted for inflation, bailouts are yet to reach that of the 1980s, although that was a time of a significant regional conflict (Iraq-Iran). - Bailouts show some correlation with oil prices. This has several explanations, higher oil prices can reflect
9/ As a percentage of donor income however, bailouts have remained relatively low. This can be explained by several factors, the key being the growth in donor incomes as a result of both growing energy production and higher prices. However as large donors such as Saudi Arabia
