It’s early but it feels like Venezuela’s opposition & its allies abroad are choosing a “Brazilian strategy” rather than an “American strategy” in reacting to Maduro’s stolen election 🧵

The (traditionally) American strategy is big sanctions, diplomatic recognition of true winner (Guaidó or in this case González), immediate focus on mass protests. During Trump years it also involved (absurd, empty) talk of US invasion or vague “all options on table”

The Brazilian strategy, deeply baked into Itamaraty, is dialogue (even when it seems utterly pointless), emphasis on non-intervention and self-determination, continuing to recognize aggressor — playing the long game in hope *conditions on the ground* change (more in a moment)

The Brazilian strategy can be deeply frustrating, “both sides”-ish and feel like it’s coddling the winner. But this msg and other statements from MCM suggest she willing to play this game for now

Interestingly, the Americans also sound like they’re willing to follow Brazil’s lead on Venezuela for now. I do not expect major new sanctions on oil for ex even after Maduro blatantly stole the election

Everyone seems to be reacting to perceived failures of the Guaidó years — the view is sanctions and recognizing alternate govt produced no change and lots of negative consequences including more mass migration, economic suffering and made dialogue with Maduro more difficult.

“So let’s do it Brazil’s way — grit our teeth, insist on dialogue, release of ballot counts, avoid really confrontational America-style statements at OAS etc — let’s play the long game.”

My view: Unfortunately I do not think the Brazilian strategy will work The American strategy also did not work An Ortega-style regime that does not care about world opinion is incredibly tough to dislodge But can’t blame them for trying something new