THREAD: the summer Covid wave in the UK continues. Basically, there is a LOT of Covid around and not a lot of other respiratory viruses. If you have cold or flu symptoms, it's probably Covid. The latest hospital data from England shows steady, quite high levels. 1/8

But admissions don't tell us how much virus is circulating more generally. The best (but imperfect) measure we have is wasterwater measurements, and only in Scotland and not England. Scotland's wastewater is showing a huge July peak - highest since Omicron's 1st yr in 2022 2/8

Because different people shed different amounts of virus and variants can matter too, you can't for sure infer how many people were infected between different wasterwater peaks. BUT given the size, I'd say it's pretty likely this is the largest peak since 2022 in Scotland 3/8

And probably in England too. The most recent week in Scotland does show declining amounts of virus, but the Edinburgh Fringe Festival is about to start for the whole month and that might drive things higher again. 4/8

I suppose the good news is that, given the size of the wave, admissions are not as high as they might have been last year or the year before. We are fortunate that the spring booster programme was complete only a month or so before this wave started. 5/8

The bad news is that so many infections will lead to more people developing Long Covid - see @trishgreenhalgh brilliant thread pulling together everything we know about Long Covid from earlier today 6/8

People are getting ill more often than they used to, with consequent disruption to their lives. This is both because we’ve added a new disease to our population & because Covid is stubbornly not seasonal and is still creating several waves a year. 7/8

Remember if you feel like you've got a cold, it's more likely to be Covid. Don't assume that one negative test means it isn't - do test over a few days. For more, please visit my substack here 8/8

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