The dumbest people on Twitter say "NATO" justifies russia's 2014 invasion & 2022 escalation. A multidimensionally, fractally wrong argument.🧵 1. Putin spent the 2000s declaring Ukraine a sovereign state with the inherent right to join or leave military alliances including NATO.

2. In late 2010 @MedvedevRussiaE and Yanukovych signed the Astana Declaration, recognising all countries including Ukraine had the right to choose or change their security arrangements, including treaties of alliance.

3. In 1990 US secretary James Baker suggested that Final Settlement discussions "could" achieve an outcome where NATO would not expand "one inch to the East", but they "did not have German agreement". Baker's proffer was never negotiated or finalised.

4. In April 2008 - while Putin was recognising Ukraine’s right to join NATO - Ukraine requested NATO membership. NATO “welcomed Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership” but never received a Member Action Plan. The process stalled.

5. Sixteen other countries applied for NATO membership and were approved 1990-2024. If russia is opposed to NATO expansion they should have attacked new NATO members or the members that approved them.

6. Putin said russia "didn't have any problem" with Sweden since joining NATO would not present an immediate threat. Ukraine did not join NATO, had no plan to join NATO, and did not want to join NATO. Russia invaded anyway.

7. Joining NATO was unpopular. Most Ukrainians did not want to join NATO until 2014 when russian federation soldiers couped Crimea and invaded Donbas. russian aggression provoked NATO membership.

8. Ukrainian Parliament was legally prohibited from joining NATO and committed to neutrality until russia's Feb 2014 Crimea coup & April 2014 Donbas invasion. Russian aggression proved there was no safety in neutrality, provoking Ukraine joining NATO.

9. Russia's warmongering threats began Sep 2013 over Yanukovych’s EU trade deal, not NATO. Glazyev said “russia could no longer guarantee Ukraine's status as a state & could intervene if pro-russian regions of the country appealed directly to Moscow."

10. “NATO expansion vs russian expansion” is false equivalence. NATO is a private club. New members must apply to join NATO, are unanimously approved, and can cancel their membership. russian soldiers invade and annex territory by force. russia is an expansionist military empire.

11. NATO's analog is russia’s CSTO. Which is unpopular because russia is not a reliable partner. Armenia is withdrawing from russia's CSTO because russia isn't protecting Armenia from Azeri invasion, and might be helping Azerbaijan attack them.

12. Putin rejected a 2022 peace deal where Ukraine would have committed to stay out of NATO. Putin's goal is the imperialist occupation of Ukraine, not neutrality.

13. NATO was no threat to Russia's base in Crimea. In April 2010 Yanukovych extended russia's lease, guaranteeing that russian marines would control Sevastopol until 2042. Russia cancelled their lease and stopped paying rent in April 2014.

14. “What would the US do if NATO had bases in Mexico with missiles pointed at Washington?” In 2014 only russia had military bases in Ukraine. If russia felt threatened they should have attacked US missile bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, or Turkey not Ukraine.

15. “But the USA _wanted_ to build bases in Ukraine.” Mexico is sovereign, and can decide whose missiles to host. The US military isn't justified couping Merida & invading Sonora because russia “wants” to build missile bases in Mexico someday.

yes