1/🧵 Ukrainsk. Let's make the stock of the situation.

2/🧵 As of now fighting is onging in the southern dachas, as well as in the easternmost and southernmost high-rises apartment buildings. In this sector the Russians, other than attacking head-on, are trying to encircle the town from both the north and south.

3/🧵 The northern pincer was successful in breaching both the AT ditch and the dragon's teeth line. Behind are fields until the railway, which MUST hold for reasons I already specified in many of my previous posts.

4/🧵 The northern pincer also threatens to open a new direction for Selydove's defenders, which have been so far effective as to significantly slowing Russian advances in Mykhailivka.

5/🧵 The southern flank endangers both Ukrainsk and Hirnyk, threatening to tie up valuable Ukrainian maneuvering space by initiating the battle for the settlement. The road to Tsukuryne is also wide open from there.

6/🧵 In the city itself the Russians have been as said confined to its outskirts. The terikon is still in Ukrainian hands, as well as its industrial area. If the high-rises would be lost, this will become the center of Ukrainian resistance in the town.

7/🧵 Unfortunately I'm expecting the town to fall in the short to medium-term at best. After the town is the vital railway line, which the Russians will very likely try to break as fast as possible using the northern pincer, without letting the Ukrainians reorganize.

8/🧵 This action will be probably coupled with an attack vector towards Tsukuryne, which sits right on the railway. The battle for Hirnyk will also be raging in the medium-term, severely worsening maneuvering conditions for the Ukrainians in the Nevels'ke pocket and nearby.

9/🧵 If the Ukrainians do not manage to stop the Russians in the short term, then the front will shift to the railway line, which will be as vital as the one in Avdiivka. After that, only open fields. 0 defenses, minuscule settlements.

10/🧵 In the medium-long term the Russians may be able to close up on Andriivka, which is defended by strongholds that were supposed to stop an advancement from the south and not from the north.

11/🧵 Nonetheless, the sheer density of the trench networks here will not be an easy nut to crack for Russia even with the terrain and direction advantage. Moreover, trenches here have been upgraded since 2023, just like Kurakhove. Some pre-war strongholds are also present.

12/🧵 If you liked this thread or found it interesting, I will kindly ask you to like and follow my account to help me grow and reach more and more people with my information. I also encourage you to ask questions, give feedback and critics. Thanks for reading! ❤️

yes