The event at Germany’s army academy @FueAkBwHH has started. Ukraine‘s honorary consul Iryna Tybinka: Ukrainians are tired, but everyone understands: we have no choice but to fight. Those who demand a sort of cease fire, or stop of arms delivery, demand our death. /1
Marcus @MarcusFaber: Ukrainians defend us all with their fight, we need to be thankful. I visit Ukraine regularly, have been five times in Ukraine, and speak with civilians and NGOs, they know why they fight. /2
@MarcusFaber Hendrik Remmel from #GIDS: Ukraine is in strategic defensive since a year, its army's challenges are the same. First of all the lack of manpower. Ukraine needs tanks, IFVs, other equipment, to achieve dominance vs. Russia, as Russia's strategy is now: "we hold longer than UA". /3
@MarcusFaber #Remmel further: without heavy equipment, Ukrainians will away one meter after another. Russians are not aiming to gain large territories in short time. They push slow, and aim on step-by-step destroying Ukrainian army and demotivate the population in a war of attrition. /4
@MarcusFaber Marcus @MarcusFaber: if you do not change the variables, the result of the formula will be the same. We have a whole alliance of democracies, there is no deficit of equipment. There is lack of equipment in Ukraine. Out of 90 Fuchs tanks we delivered 0. We have 5% of Leopard2s. /5
@MarcusFaber Marcus @MarcusFaber: Ukrainians use the delivered equipment in a very skilled way, and are thankful. But it is just too few tanks and other pieces delivered. Every democratic country says: ok, another countries must deliver. But this is irresponsible. /6
@MarcusFaber Iryna Tybinka on Russia: the Russian population celebrates this war. It is not Putin's war, it is Russians' war. It is not Putin who has created Russia, it is Russia which has created Putin. Russians are full with hate and violence. Without Putin, it will be the same. /7
@MarcusFaber Iryna Tybinka further: the history demonstrates, that Russia has any chance only after it gets defeated. Only a defeat can lead an empire to some change. Anything else brings nothing. Russians are ready to suffer under bad living conditions, as long as their empire survives. /8
Leslie Schübel from @KoerberIP: most of the Russians are just indifferent, they have no interest for anything, they just follow what their government says them to do. Will Moscow decide to militarily attack the West? Maybe. Will the Russians support it? I don't think so. /9
@KoerberIP Schübel further: in Russia's propaganda though it is already a war against NATO and the West, since years. Russian media say since a longer time, that NATO soldiers are fighting in Ukraine, that there are NATO boots on the ground. And still Russia does not use nukes. /10
Marcus @MarcusFaber: one can't see movements inside a dictatorship. Putin has developed a propaganda system giving a picture of unity. The story of Russia's invulnerability is BS. Afghanistan has defeated Moscow, Chechnya also. We can't say what happens inside Russia. /11
A question from the public: why have nations outside of NATO has beaten Russia, but NATO is reluctant? @MarcusFaber explains the role of Western enthusiasts who supported the fighters. /12
Marcus @MarcusFaber: the idea of "peace talks" w Putin is absurd. Putin is a highly rational player, he has no interest to talk as long as he sees the opponent has less weapons than Russia. Germany's reluctancy in Ukraine's policy is not only because Scholz alone, but SocDems /13
Remmel from #GIDS: Russia will be forced to talks when Russia is forced and overwhelmed. When Ukrainian army cuts through Russia's defences and comes to the Sea of Azov, Ukraine cuts Russian Crimea group from Russia, and this will force Putin to talks, but not before. /14
Leslie Schübel: Russia's attack on NATO will be most probably of a hybrid character, I cannot imagine Russian tanks rolling towards Warsaw. /15