Russia appears to win in Moldova. The referendum on EU membership reveals critically low support. With 98% of ballots counted, only 50.08% favor the EU membership, while 49% oppose. Evidence of Russian funding, vote-buying, and interference to undermine the EU and polarize 1/
President Maia Sandu won the first round of presidential elections with approximately 42% support, facing a likely runoff against pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo, who secured about 26-28% of the vote 2/
Sandu denounced what she called "unprecedented" Russian interference in the elections, claiming security officials found evidence that some 300,000 votes (close to 10%) had been bought in "a fraud of unprecedented scale." 3/
The Moldovan government alleged that Russia pumped approximately €100 million into efforts to disrupt the votes 4/
Moldovan authorities uncovered a plot involving over 100 young Moldovans who received training in Moscow from private military groups on how to create civil unrest around the two votes 5/
But the news are not completely bad. Despite the close referendum result, experts expect votes from Moldovans abroad to ultimately secure a majority for EU accession, as these votes tend to overwhelmingly support pro-EU objectives 6/
Modlova pivot from Russia to the EU is similar to that of Ukraine. Moldova began EU accession talks in 2024 after securing candidacy status in 2022, with Sandu's government pledging to overhaul the justice system and bolster the economy to achieve EU membership by 2030 7/
Similar to Ukraine before the invasions in 2014 and 2022, the country has seen a significant shift in its economic ties, with 70% of its exports now going to the EU, compared to Russia being its biggest trading partner a decade ago 8/
Russian influence remains significant, particularly in the breakaway region of Transnistria and the autonomous region of Gagauzia (where some people are openly asking for a return of an orthodox Russian tsar) 9/
This is a critical moment for Moldova on its EU path. Russia will destabilize and subvert political process in Moldova, but the EU can do so much to support Moldova aspirations. There are many parallels between Ukraine and Moldova, but I believe both countries will succeed 10X
Sources: Picture Copyright AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda