It has become increasingly likely that North Korean combat troops will appear in #Ukraine soon. While there remain many unknowns on this subject, the deployment of North Korean troops raises many different potential issues for Russia, Ukraine and NATO. 1/10 🧵🇺🇦
2/ On 13 October, President Zelenskyy announced the anticipated deployment of North Korea troops’ to Ukraine. In the past 48 hours, the head of NATO, Mark Rutte, described how “North Korea sending troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine would mark a significant escalation.”
3/ The most obvious challenge for Russia in the deployment of North Korean troops for combat operations will be at the tactical level. There will be a communication gap between soldiers and commanders who speak two different languages. It is very unlikely that most North Korean
4/ The status of command of the North Koreans will be interesting. Will they operate fully integrated within Russian formations and be subject to the full command of Russian commanders? Or will they be under a form of operational command or control with caveats on their
5/ The North Korean deployment might be indicative of Russian manpower challenges. However, ten thousand North Koreans represents less than ten days combat losses for Russia at current rates. If Russia is having manpower issues, it will require far more North Koreans to address
6/ For North Korea, the deployment of its troops to Ukraine has many advantages. First, its ensures that it has a grateful client in Russia. North Korea has already dispatched large quantities of munitions to Russia for its war effort against Ukraine, and has allegedly provided
7/ Secondly, North Korea might assess that prolonging the war in Ukraine – even if it plays a small role in doing so – is in its strategic interests because it distracts the U.S. administration from focussing too much on the Western Pacific (and North Korea).
8/ It probably stands to reason that the Russians will provide assistance to North Korea. Sharing lessons on modern combat, particularly on the integrated use of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles will be of great interest to North Korea which likes to keep the South Korean
9/ Hopefully Russia won't be sharing lessons that enhance the reliability and accuracy of North Korean nuclear delivery systems.
10/ You can read my full assessment of the implications of North Korea joining the Ukraine War as a co-belligerent with Russia in my latest post at Futura Doctrina ($). End
