So I have some thoughts about that Selzer poll. A lot of thoughts. Excuse any typos, this was put together fast, though we did catch all the "Seltzers". https://t.co/n49Cl70doM
Perhaps not the biggest takeaway, but there is a notably high correlation between where inflation has been greater/lesser and where Harris has gained/lost ground versus Biden.
There are some confounders here, but the inflation thing is actually statistically significant! Each additional $100 of inflation in a state since January 2021 predicts a further 1.6 swing against Harris in our polling average vs. the Biden-Trump margin in 2020.
So I have some thoughts about that Selzer poll. A lot of thoughts. Excuse any typos, this was put together fast, though we did catch all the "Seltzers".
https://t.co/n49Cl70doMPerhaps not the biggest takeaway, but there is a notably high correlation between where inflation has been greater/lesser and where Harris has gained/lost ground versus Biden. There are some confounders here, but the inflation thing is actually statistically significant! Each additional $100 of inflation in a state since January 2021 predicts a further 1.6 swing against Harris in our polling average vs. the Biden-Trump margin in 2020.