“Joe Biden did everyone a disservice when he said at the beginning of his presidency: ‘America is back.’” 🧵 Highlights from my interview with @NZZ:
@NZZ Biden pretended that everything was returning to normal in transatlantic relations. Only in the last two years, since it became clear that Donald Trump had a serious chance of returning to the White House, has opinion in Europe shifted.
@NZZ Trump's second term could be a turning point. He, and many around him, may be ready to significantly reduce the U.S. commitment to European security. This will force Europe to make difficult decisions that it has long avoided.
@NZZ Trump will try to negotiate a peace or ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Negotiations are no longer taboo. But that doesn't mean he will succeed, because the problem itself is really difficult.
@NZZ I doubt he will stop aid to Ukraine to force an end to the conflict. Trump knows that he would have a political problem if a U.S. partner collapsed in a spectacular way. He will want to prevent an Afghanistan-like outcome in Ukraine.
@NZZ That is why he will probably seek an agreement that, among other things, freezes the current battle lines and prevents Ukraine from joining NATO.
@NZZ I wish I could say there was a better alternative. It is a laudable goal to want a total Ukrainian victory. But how exactly do you achieve that? We do not have an answer. The only clear option would be for NATO to enter the war against Russia directly. No one in NATO wants that.
@NZZ Europeans may have believed that the United States was deeply committed to defending all NATO territory, but to be honest, much of that was an illusion. Russia is a threat to its neighbors, but it is not a Soviet-style threat that could overrun the entire continent.
@NZZ When the United States agreed to expand NATO after the Cold War, it wasn't because it was serious about defending the new member countries. Rather, Americans assumed that once counties become members of NATO, the United States would never have to defend them.
@NZZ Donald Trump has an interesting philosophy of history that can be summed up in one sentence: "We'll see what happens." It is probably better than the Obama philosophy of the long arc of history that bends toward justice.
@NZZ Full interview (in German): https://t.co/wjTVO5YFnF