On February 24, 2022, exactly 1000 days ago Russia launched the full-scale war against Ukraine, a war which in fact started in February 2014 with the occupation and annexation of Crimea. Looking back, let is review what strategic goals Russia has (not) achieved. I summarized 10 objectives which were laid out during but also during the full scale war. Thread:
Objective 1: Conquering Kyiv The takeover of Gostomel airport near Kyiv was crucial for a swift takeover of Ukraine's capital and by extension the country altogether. The conscripts defending the airport, however, delayed the Russian advance of Russian VDV paratroopers long
Objective 2: Toppling or at least expelling the Ukrainian government and installing a puppet regime. The takeover of Kyiv aimed to install a puppet regime similar to Belarus. It supposed to be headed by Medvedchuk. Due to the failed takeover of Kyiv but also unwillingness of the
Objective 3: Conquest of Donbas The initial stages of the full scale war aimed to pummel all Ukraine and enable the takeover of the entire country. With the failure in the North, Russian forces were ordered to take the Donbas "within 3 months" after the failed battle of Kyiv.
Objective 4: Isolating Ukraine from foreign help When Putin announced the full scale war in February 2022 he openly threatened the civilized world with retaliation, if other countries come to help. While he deterred a foreign intervention (at least to this point), Ukraine
Objective 5: Isolating Ukraine politically One of the key elements of trying to eliminate the statehood of a nation is to deny international recognition and political support. However, Ukraine is present at all major political events and gets visits from state's leaders, even
Objective 6: Taking regional capitals While Kherson was only briefly in Russian hands, Zaporizhzhia defied the occupation altogether. Both regional capitals are annexed by Russia on paper, but remain under Ukrainian control with no signs of that being changed any time soon.
Objective 7: Blockade of the Black Sea The Black Sea has always been Russia's backwater sea. It should have been an easy task to blockade and isolate Ukraine by sea, but nothing could be farer from this. Ukraine successfully broke the siege and eliminated several major Black Sea
Objective 8: Control of Ukrainian air space Taking control of air space is crucial for any modern army. When the US liberated Kuwait in 1991, the air campaign lasted weeks before ground operations started. With decisive air power, ground operations by the enemy are virtually
Objective 9: Overcome and circumvent Western sanctions Sanctions play a crucial role when fighting Russia. While the overall notion is that sanctions do not work, it is wrong to simplify this. Sanctions work when adjusted from time to time. Acquiring material is always possible
Objective 10: Keeping the Russian economy afloat The Russian economy sustained some major impacts in the beginning of the full scale war, but managed to adjust to this new reality and maintained to be afloat. This worked for the last 2.5 years, but reaches new boiling points.