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I have been travelling across #Mumbai and #Maharashtra to cover the assembly elections. Based on my interactions with the voters, politicians, babus, and seasoned journalists, I can say with some conviction that these are among the issues which may shape voting patterns and electoral outcomes.  #Thread #politics #Maharashtra #MaharashtraPolitics #politics #thread #MaharashtraAssembly #MaharashtraAssemblyElections #MaharashtraAssemblyPolls 1. The Maratha quota protest led by #ManojJarangePatil seeking reservations from the #OBC category: The #Maratha- Kunbis are said to account for 31.5 per cent of Maharashtra’s population, while the #OBCs number over 52 per cent. However, Kunbis, who have significant numbers in #Konkan and #Vidarbha, where they may not be endogamous with the Marathas, are already in the OBC category. Those with records to prove they are Maratha-Kunbis or Kunbi-Marathas are also classified as backwards. More realistic surmises put the population of Marathas, sans the Kunbis, at 12 to 16 per cent.  As the sociologist Andre Beteille has noted, while every state has its pattern of dominant castes, in Maharashtra, it is a single caste, that is the Marathas, that enjoys dominance. While it is relatively easier to mobilise the caste-conscious #Marathas on issues like quotas, in contrast, the lack of a singular and over-arching OBC identity that transcends caste and religious lines makes it difficult for the backwards across 450 pan-Maharashtra classes to mobilise to that extent. Plus, there are divisions within the OBCs. So, will a OBC counter-mobilisation happen? Let's wait and watch.  The Maratha protests or the ‘Jarange factor’ shaped the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls, especially in #Marathwada. This time, the anger may disperse to an extent due to the presence of multiple Maratha candidates and rebels in the fray.   The OBCs are also upset at what they claim were the state government’s attempts to molly-coddle the Marathas at their cost. 2. Agrarian distress: Remember Kishor Kumar’s ‘Ek ritu aae ek ritu jaae Mausam badale naa badale naseeb’ from the movie ‘Gautam Govinda?’ This encapsulates the state of our farmers. Regardless of who is in power, they will continue to suffer. Agrarian distress is pinching farmers hard. Agriculturists say that men of marriageable age from farming families are finding it tough to get brides. The low procurement prices of #cotton and #soyabean are an issue in Marathwada, Vidarbha and western Maharashtra. Soyabean alone may affect the polling in an estimated 70 seats. #music 3. The craze for govt jobs: One corollary of #agrariandistress is the rising attraction for government jobs for the salary, stability, and ahem, other perks. Most villages have at least one ‘spardha pariksha’ aspirant, who is gearing up to chase that increasingly elusive chimera. The share of the govt in formal sector #employment is falling, but the number of aspirants is rising. The core areas of #Pune are full of students studying for the public service commission exams. 4. The rising costs of education: One of the factors spurring quota agitations in the state is the rising cost of #education, especially for professional courses in private colleges and universities. Students feel that being part of some reserved category will improve their chances of getting a seat in the public sector. Ironically, politicians who often wax eloquent about #socialjustice are loath to provide caste-based quotas in their private institutions or deemed universities, despite the largesse that the government bestows on them. Quotas in such institutions may be an idea whose time has come.

5. Lack of jobs and employment opportunities: The lack of private sector employment, especially the white-collar jobs that most yearn for, is a major factor. Many villages in Marathwada and Vidarbha have seen youth migrate to cities like Pune and #ChhatrapatiSambhajinagar for

8. Growing disillusionment: There is a growing section of people who are increasingly disillusioned and frustrated at conventional #politics and #politicians, especially after the twists and turns in Maharashtra’s politics over the past five years. Abuses on live television, dog

I have been travelling across #Mumbai and #Maharashtra to cover the assembly elections. Based on my interactions with the voters, politicians, babus, and seasoned journalists, I can say with some conviction that these are among the issues which may shape voting patterns and electoral outcomes.  #Thread #politics #Maharashtra #MaharashtraPolitics #politics #thread #MaharashtraAssembly #MaharashtraAssemblyElections #MaharashtraAssemblyPolls 1. The Maratha quota protest led by #ManojJarangePatil seeking reservations from the #OBC category: The #Maratha- Kunbis are said to account for 31.5 per cent of Maharashtra’s population, while the #OBCs number over 52 per cent. However, Kunbis, who have significant numbers in #Konkan and #Vidarbha, where they may not be endogamous with the Marathas, are already in the OBC category. Those with records to prove they are Maratha-Kunbis or Kunbi-Marathas are also classified as backwards. More realistic surmises put the population of Marathas, sans the Kunbis, at 12 to 16 per cent.  As the sociologist Andre Beteille has noted, while every state has its pattern of dominant castes, in Maharashtra, it is a single caste, that is the Marathas, that enjoys dominance. While it is relatively easier to mobilise the caste-conscious #Marathas on issues like quotas, in contrast, the lack of a singular and over-arching OBC identity that transcends caste and religious lines makes it difficult for the backwards across 450 pan-Maharashtra classes to mobilise to that extent. Plus, there are divisions within the OBCs. So, will a OBC counter-mobilisation happen? Let's wait and watch.  The Maratha protests or the ‘Jarange factor’ shaped the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls, especially in #Marathwada. This time, the anger may disperse to an extent due to the presence of multiple Maratha candidates and rebels in the fray.   The OBCs are also upset at what they claim were the state government’s attempts to molly-coddle the Marathas at their cost. 2. Agrarian distress: Remember Kishor Kumar’s ‘Ek ritu aae ek ritu jaae Mausam badale naa badale naseeb’ from the movie ‘Gautam Govinda?’ This encapsulates the state of our farmers. Regardless of who is in power, they will continue to suffer. Agrarian distress is pinching farmers hard. Agriculturists say that men of marriageable age from farming families are finding it tough to get brides. The low procurement prices of #cotton and #soyabean are an issue in Marathwada, Vidarbha and western Maharashtra. Soyabean alone may affect the polling in an estimated 70 seats. #music 3. The craze for govt jobs: One corollary of #agrariandistress is the rising attraction for government jobs for the salary, stability, and ahem, other perks. Most villages have at least one ‘spardha pariksha’ aspirant, who is gearing up to chase that increasingly elusive chimera. The share of the govt in formal sector #employment is falling, but the number of aspirants is rising. The core areas of #Pune are full of students studying for the public service commission exams. 4. The rising costs of education: One of the factors spurring quota agitations in the state is the rising cost of #education, especially for professional courses in private colleges and universities. Students feel that being part of some reserved category will improve their chances of getting a seat in the public sector. Ironically, politicians who often wax eloquent about #socialjustice are loath to provide caste-based quotas in their private institutions or deemed universities, despite the largesse that the government bestows on them. Quotas in such institutions may be an idea whose time has come.5. Lack of jobs and employment opportunities: The lack of private sector employment, especially the white-collar jobs that most yearn for, is a major factor. Many villages in Marathwada and Vidarbha have seen youth migrate to cities like Pune and #ChhatrapatiSambhajinagar for8. Growing disillusionment: There is a growing section of people who are increasingly disillusioned and frustrated at conventional #politics and #politicians, especially after the twists and turns in Maharashtra’s politics over the past five years. Abuses on live television, dog

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